Chinese automotive forgings production and supply capacity
Domestic and foreign automotive forgings market overview
1.2009 forgings production
According to the China Forging Association statistics, the 2009 National Automobile forgings production of 3.68 million tons, die forgings production was 4.79 million tons, the entire industry forging production was 7.76 million tons, a relatively large increase compared to 2008.
The worldwide automotive forgings (excluding China) production of about 13 million t global total production of forgings, die forgings production of 17.2 million tons, 23 million tons. The world"s automotive forgings (including China) yields the sum of 16 million to 17 million tons, which means forgings production enterprises in China can only find 17 million t of automotive forgings market share of trade.
2. Automotive forgings development trend
If you estimate an increase of 2 million cars a year, according to China"s auto market, the annual increase in production of forgings in the 100,000 to 150,000 tons; according to an annual increase of more than 1 million truck estimates, forgings production increased from 760,000 to 900,000 tons; This means that the amount of the increase in the Chinese market car more than 3 million, the maximum annual increase forgings production of 900,000 to 1 million tons this basis, forgings production in 2010 of about 400 million to 460 million t production in 2011 more than 500 million tons.
3 car ownership Overview
In 2009, China"s automobile ownership is more than 7600 million, the of cars ownership is 26,050,000. With China"s urbanization, the urban population increased to 400 million, in order to calculate the car ownership rate of 6.5 cars per 100 people. Since the reform and opening up, economic development, the car enter the family to maintain high growth, a 1.7 percent increase in the amount of development to 30 cars per 100 people to 15 years. With the process of urbanization in China is to further the development and continued growth in auto demand, China"s annual demand for cars in about 4.9 million.
However, regardless of how China"s automobile industry development, forging the next 15 to 20 years, China"s auto production increased by not more than the sum of the current worldwide production of automotive forgings, that is 16 million to 17 million tons. Because the population of the developed world in the 10 billion yuan, China"s future development is very good, there are more than 1 billion people over on the living standards of the developed countries, and then when the number of cars in China, it is equivalent to the number of cars throughout the developed world, means that when China forgings production is currently around the world forgings production.
4. Automotive forgings business opportunities
The Chinese automotive forgings facing two opportunities: the first is a joint venture forging localization rate is getting higher and higher, will be rising domestic procurement of forgings, and thus contributed to the domestic auto companies purchasing domestic forging more positive. The reason First, the technical level of the domestic automotive forgings significantly enhanced security forgings as car parts, previously a joint venture must be certified by the foreign assessment is a long time, even provides foreign security number of years, the pieces must be from abroad imports, this restriction clause in the contract has expired, at the same time the state has adopted policies to actively encourage domestic procurement of these forgings products. Overseas global sourcing of auto parts gradually turning to the Chinese market, a trend that had already started a few years ago, especially in the 2009 financial crisis, many forgings overseas enterprises have been a severe recession, which is more in the initial stage forging enterprise provided a good opportunity.
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